Good morning traders, the week belongs to retail with tech pulling the strings in the background. We have big retail earnings coming this week with the likes of Home Depot, Walmart, Alibaba, and a host of other retailers. Again, more than numbers are what is going to be said about forward guidance on the consumer. Then on the technical side of things, the weekly chart is in a topping pattern and overall, we are in a big rising wedge pattern. The weekly outlook on the Spy is bearish closing below the 411.59 with harmony between the technical side (bearish) and the Quant side (bearish). We are looking for a pull back or continuation below 411. Key levels to watch for … Resistance (jack) 413(queen) 414-415and (king) 416-418area. Support (jack) 412 (queen)411-410and (King)409-408. The main thesis for the day is a BEARISH bias closing below 411.59 with a projected target/low of between 411-408. Alt thesis is BULLISH bias closing above 411.59 with a projected target/high of between 412-418. The main channel we are in is between 397-416. Last week, market strength and breadth opened gap up and began falling immediately for much of the day until a bottom was verified around 2pm turning price action up for the rest of the day. I expect strength to open strong and find weakness mid-morning. We have Harmony between the technical side which is (BEARISH) and the Quant side (BEARISH bias). The futures have a bullish bias for the day with Dissonance between the technical (bearish) and the Quants (bullish). Scenarios for the day: 1) Expanded Range Day structure. we could get a premarket pop. Experience some profit taking early taking us back down to support. We could get a little consolidation in the middle of the day before going on to close around lows. Vise versa 36% probability 2) Trend day up we open gap up and start with a push back toward the previous close. We find support on or before the previous close then begin the uptrend for the day. We usually find midday chop around either possible queen or king resistance area (key to watch today is for a failed trend day where we push down from target) 34% probability 3) Rounded reversal day type structure. We could get a continued push higher toward jack or queen resistance area and find midday chop around either queen or king resistance before going back down with the same energy or force we went up with the first part of the day or vice versa. 30% probability