The Fed said Higher longer so the market said falling further. 9/21/23 Premarket outlook and Technical Analysis for day trading the SPY. 

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The Fed said Higher longer so the market said falling further. 9/21/23 Premarket outlook and Technical Analysis for day trading the SPY. 

Good morning traders, the market is at its breaking point, and it can all be linked to bonds and big tech. Normally in the technical cycle analysis that I do it would be common to see a relief rally start to form in the area that we are in but hold it the market is truly at a breaking point where correction is eminent. Big tech holds the key along with bonds or rates. It is crucial to realize that all these items are at critical levels, tech stocks like Apple are in danger of breaking below key support areas (173.75 is key support on Apple). Then looking at interest rates are at key breakout areas (on TNX 43.65 is key resistance to break). So, with these two items at such key levels have me reluctant to play for some type of relief rally and to continue to roll shorts lower to lock in profits and stay short without shorting in the whole. The 432 level on the spy is key if there is any kind of relief rally, I am likely to look at getting short again. This is a very dangerous time because that relief rally could also explode through the main resistance area at 437/ and major level between 441-443. 

Key levels to watch for … Resistance (jack) 437** (queen) 438-440 and (king) 441-443 area. Support (jack) 435 (queen)434 and (King)432. The main thesis for the day is a BULLISH bias closing above 438.64 with a projected target/high of between 438-443*. Alt thesis is BEARISH bias closing below 438.64 with a projected target/low of between 437-427. The main channel we are in, is between 453-425. Yesterday, market strength and breadth opened at highs and fell from the sky to the floor.  I expect market strength and breadth to open at max lows and either stay pinned to lows or get pop midday that could lead to a relief rally.  We have harmony between the technical side which is (bullish) and the Quant side (bullish bias).  The futures have a bullish bias for the day with harmony between the technical side (bullish) and the Quant side (bullish), however in this scenario it just means a more explosive move could be had if the alternate thesis plays out.  Scenarios for the day: 

• 1) Wild Trend Day down we open gap down and start with a push back toward the previous close.  We find resistance on or before the previous close then begin the downtrend for the day. We usually find midday chop around either possible queen or king support area. Then the second half of the day we start with a head fake looking to continue the primary trend of the morning but at some point, try to rally into the close or  or vice versa 34% probability